Flood risk calculator

A flood risk calculator is available from the American National Weather Service Forecast Office at El Paso. Using 1 in 15 years as representative of the 2000, 2003 and 2007 floods (although 2007 was about 1 in 18 or 1 in 20) - and the next 6 years as the period we are interested in (the very earliest date that the EA OFRMS scheme could be in place being 2015) - the calculator gives a 33.9% chance that another 1 in 15 year flood will occur in that time. That's ONE IN THREE!

Try it for yourself at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/epz/?n=wxcalc_floodperiod